[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 28.1N 62.9W OR ABOUT
260 NM SSE OF BERMUDA AT 14/1200 UTC MOVING WNW AT 9 KT.
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC..AND THE NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT1/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN
59W-62W.

A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N58W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 55W-59W. CONDITIONS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE W-NW OR NW AT 13-17 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N40W TO 9N42W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE LIES IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WHILE THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY INACTIVE
AND HAS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
ENHANCED CONVECTION AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE IN A FEW
DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ANALYZED FROM 22N88W
TO 15N92W MOVING W AT 10-12 KT. MOST OF THE CONVECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG...IS S OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 19N16W TO 14N20W TO 11N42W. THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM
10N42W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 7N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 20W-30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS N OF THE ITCZ FROM
11N-15N BETWEEN 46W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 27N89W. 5 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED
AROUND THE HIGH...WHILE 10-15 KT SE TO S WINDS ARE OVER THE W
GULF W OF 93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER KEY WEST FLORIDA AND
THE SE GULF. SIMILAR SHOWERS REMAINS ALONG THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA...AND S LOUISIANA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH HIGH CLOUDS
ARE OVER TEXAS...THE N GULF N OF 28N...FLORIDA...THE SE
GULF...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N.
EXPECT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.
ALSO EXPECT THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE NORTH
GULF STATES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E TEXAS IN 24 HOURS
WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE ABOVE. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER N COLOMBIA
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 73W-80W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALONG THE
COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 81W-87W.
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N
HISPANIOLA FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 68W-72W. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER
HISPANIOLA DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...TOGETHER WITH MONSOON TROUGH CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BESIDES THE TWO SYSTEMS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION
...A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF PUERTO RICO FROM 23N64W TO 17N67W
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION W OF THE TROUGH
AXIS MOSTLY N OF HISPANIOLA. A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N70W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1021 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N43W. ANOTHER 1020
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N27W. AFRICAN DUST AND DRY
AIR ARE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY N OF 18N E OF
35W TO THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA SUPPRESSING TROPICAL ACTIVITY.
EXPECT THE SPECIAL FEATURES...SURFACE TROUGH...AND THE TROPICAL
WAVE TO BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA/WALLACE






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net