[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130524
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CENTERED NEAR 36.6N 61.3W AT 13/0300
UTC 0R ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM NNE OF BERMUDA MOVING E-NE AT 19
KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUST TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N49W IS MOVING WNW AT 18 KT.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
WESTWARD AT 13-18 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD EXTENDS FROM 30N55W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR
26N57W TO 23N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE SYSTEM
HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. CONTINUED SLOW DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED ALONG 83W FROM
11N-21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS S OF CUBA AND OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN
80W-85W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OFF W AFRICA
NEAR 18N16W AND CONTINUES SW TO 12N30W TO 9N41W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 9N41W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM
6N-11N BETWEEN 13W-17W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 7N-17N
BETWEEN 29W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH TO FORT MYERS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN
81W-83W. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 27N86W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED
WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND OVER S
MEXICO S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER TEXAS NEAR 30N100W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
W GULF W OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER FLORIDA...W
CUBA...AND THE SE GULF. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS... AND EL SALVADOR.
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITH CONVECTION TO ALSO ADVECT OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BESIDES THE FOUR SYSTEMS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE
SECTION...A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 28N66W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N38W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW
FROM THE HIGH TO 27N50W ALSO PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT THE
SPECIAL FEATURE LOWS TO BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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