[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120515
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 850 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 14N37W WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING NW FROM THE
LOW TO 21N43W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT 9-13 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
39W-43W. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME
A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 225 NM S OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 11N26W WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING N ACROSS THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 19N23W. HE SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT 13-17 KT.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM
12N-14N BETWEEN 25W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO W
OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 28W-31W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 20N77W TO
12N78W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN
73W-75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER E CUBA FROM
20N-22N BETWEEN 75W-78W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 21N16W
AND CONTINUES THROUGH BOTH SURFACE LOWS IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES...AT 11N26W AND 14N37W...THEN CONTINUES S TO 7N45W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 7N45W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER FLORIDA FROM JACKSONVILLE TO MIAMI WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS. A 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE
WINDS ARE NOTED WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND S MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 26N92W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER S FLORIDA...W CUBA...AND THE
SE GULF. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER JAMAICA...AND THE S COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W-83W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER W NICARAGUA...W HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND S GUATEMALA.
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N72W 29N76W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1018 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 25N64W PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER. A 1014 MB LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 26N53W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 21N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1027 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 37N28W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 27N45W. EXPECT THE TWO SPECIAL
FEATURE LOWS TO BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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