[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101204
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 13N29W TO 22N32W MOVING W AT 10
KT. SHORTWAVE INFRARED METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE VICINITY OF
13N29W AS A 1010 MB LOW...WHICH IS PRIMARILY THE FOCUS OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH GYRE ENCOMPASSING THE AREA FROM 08N-17N BETWEEN
21W-43W. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOCATED SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 22W-31W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 29W-32W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 12N62W TO 19N57W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
15N56W AND IS QUICKLY BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS AND ARE MORE
CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM 16N60W TO
15N66W. THE COMBINATION OF THE WAVE AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 61W-66W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W
ALONG 13N28W TO 09N34W TO 07N50W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 07N50W TO 06N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 13W-20W...AND FROM 12N-14N
BETWEEN 23W-26W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
06N-09N BETWEEN 31W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF NEAR 25N87W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WESTWARD TO THE TEXAS COAST REMAINING PART OF A LARGER UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ENCOMPASSING NORTHERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF
THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC WATERS ALONG 24N AND IT REMAINS ANCHORED BY A
1015 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE SE GULF NEAR 24N83W. THE RIDGE IS
PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE GULF W OF 88W...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING E OF 88W. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GULF ALONG 24N/25N THROUGH
THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD TO 27N BY THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N92W.
CONVECTIVE NOTED EARLIER HAS WANED AND ONLY LINGERING ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN N OF 20N W OF 80W AND OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
09N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 11N.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 61W-68W.
OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG DUE TO A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ALONG 24N IN THE W ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W
ATLC WATERS W OF 73W. FARTHER EAST...THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF
EMILY IS SURROUNDING A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N49W WITH
WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING S-SW FROM THE
LOWER PRESSURE AREA TO 28N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA
FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 45W-56W IN A RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 24N BETWEEN 48W AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 32N28W TO
20N48W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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