[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 12N28W TO 17N28W MOVING W AT 10
KT. SHORTWAVE INFRARED METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE VICINITY OF
12N28W AS A 1012 MB LOW...WHICH IS PRIMARILY THE FOCUS OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH GYRE ENCOMPASSING THE AREA FROM 08N-17N BETWEEN
20W-45W. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOCATED SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 20W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 28W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 11N59W TO 17N59W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
14N54W AND IS QUICKLY LOSING IDENTITY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED NW OF THE WAVE
AXIS AND ARE MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 20N55W TO 15N64W. THE COMBINATION OF THE WAVE AND LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 60W-62W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO
14N21W THEN RESUMES NEAR 11N31W TO 09N40W TO 10N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 10W-17W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 31W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF NEAR 26N96W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WESTWARD TO THE TEXAS COAST REMAINING PART OF A LARGER UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ENCOMPASSING NORTHERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF
THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC WATERS ALONG 24N AND IT REMAINS ANCHORED BY A
1016 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE SE GULF NEAR 24N84W. THE RIDGE IS
PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE GULF W OF 87W THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING E OF
87W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GULF
ALONG 24N/25N THROUGH THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD TO
27N BY THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N89W.
THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION REMAINS INLAND OVER WESTERN HONDURAS
AND GUATEMALA...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING OVER EASTERN CUBA AND WEST OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N79W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 09N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING
S OF 12N. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N55W INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...
INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLAND BETWEEN 14N-17N. OTHERWISE...
EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG DUE TO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG
24N/25N IN THE W ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING SQUALL LINE THAT IS BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THE W ATLC WATERS W OF 75W. FARTHER EAST...THE
REMNANT MOISTURE OF EMILY IS SURROUNDING A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 33N50W WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING
S-SW FROM THE LOWER PRESSURE AREA TO 22N BETWEEN 45W-57W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THAT AREA IN A RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 23N BETWEEN 44W AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 32N28W TO
20N44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net