[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 16N27W
ALONG 14N28W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 12N27W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM
E OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 11N-15N.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED ALONG 57W S OF
17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. WAVE IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST NEAR
15N17W THEN RESUMES NEAR THE 1012 MB LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 12N27W CONTINUING ALONG 8N40W TO 11N51W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AREA FROM
16N21W TO 10N18W ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM W OF
THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N-14N. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS E OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 14N53W AND IS
A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH NO ASSOCIATED
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 30W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N85W COVERING
ALL BUT THE FAR NW GULF WHERE A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO ATCHAFALAYA BAY LOUISIANA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-29N E OF 88W TO
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS/NE MEXICO COAST
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL WILL REMAIN THROUGH THU. A WEAK HIGH
WILL DEVELOP OVER SE LOUISIANA ON SAT AND REMAIN STATIONARY
THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INDUCING A WEAK
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS BETWEEN FROM THE GULF OF
HONDURAS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR GUADELOUPE
ALONG 15N67W TO 17N72W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS S PANAMA
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE COAST FROM COLOMBIA W OF 74W TO COSTA RICA. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER W JAMAICA AND MOST OF CUBA
MOVING WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WATERS
WILL SHIFT ESE AND WEAKEN THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR FRESH TRADES
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO WEAKEN. W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN WED AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER
THE W ATLC TO 74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 24N-30N W OF 75W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1017 MB HIGH NEAR 24N63W AND EXTENDS W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDING AN AXIS THROUGH 32N43W TO 23N49W SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N41W TO 27N49W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE EXTENDING FROM 26N46W ALONG 19N56W
INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE ISLAND OF GUADELOUPE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS W OF 57W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N29W TO
20N46W LEAVING THE E ATLC UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT THEN
SHIFT SLIGHTLY ESE AND WEAKEN THROUGH THU. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS INTO THE W ATLC TONIGHT AND STALL WED
NIGHT FROM 31N75W TO NW BAHAMAS THU AND FRI. THE W TROPICAL ATLC
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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