[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 12N27W TO 18N26W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. SHORTWAVE INFRARED METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE
VICINITY OF 12N27W AS A 1011 MB LOW...WHICH IS PRIMARILY THE
FOCUS OF THE MONSOON TROUGH GYRE ENCOMPASSING THE AREA FROM
08N-18N BETWEEN 18W-48W. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF
ENHANCED DEEP-LAYERED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOCATED
OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 10N-21N E OF 30W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 26W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 11N55W TO 20N53W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
14N51W AND AN AREA OF HIGHER TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IS
FROM 09N-17N BETWEEN 52W-58W. TPW IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THE
MOISTURE AND SOME ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS STRETCHING
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W
ALONG 12N27W TO 09N39W TO 14N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 12W-15W...FROM 09N-19N
BETWEEN 15W-21W...AND FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 40W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NE
GULF AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SW TO OVER EAST-
CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 19N99W. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC WATERS ALONG 24N AND IT REMAINS
ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE SE GULF NEAR 24N85W.
THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N E OF 91W AND ALSO S OF 26N E OF
84W. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS LOCATED OVER THE SW
GULF S OF 20N. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE GULF ALONG 24N/25N THROUGH THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHWARD TO 26N BY THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BISECTS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW
NORTH ATLC NEAR 23N75W TO OVER HONDURAS NEAR 14N87W. MOST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS IN THE FORM OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM
14N-20N BETWEEN 79W-86W...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NICARAGUA AND ALL OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM 17N58W TO 13N62W AND IS GENERATING AN AREA OF
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 60W-66W.
OTHERWISE... EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG DUE TO A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ALONG 24N/25N IN THE W ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS MORNING AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ALONG 24N AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N62W. FARTHER EAST...THE REMNANTS OF EMILY
CONTINUES AS A COMPLEX OF TSTMS THAT HAS MERGED WITH A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING N-NW BEYOND 32N54W. THIS AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-35N BETWEEN 52W-56W.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OR
REGENERATION OF EMILY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD
AROUND 30 MPH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING S-SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N44W TO
23N55W. THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT FROM 32N39W TO 30N45W TO 26N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT N OF 30N. ISOLATED SHOWER ARE ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30N41W TO 23N52W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR
47N13W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO
32N28W TO 19N46W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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