[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS ALONG 18N23W 13N24W 9N25W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS 9N TO 16N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 31W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N46W TO A 1012 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N49W...TO 8N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
12N TO 15N BETWEEN 52W AND 54W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
10N TO 14N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N69W IN THE EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 15N71W...TO LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CUTS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
JAMAICA...TO CENTRAL COASTAL NICARAGUA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COASTAL RAINSHOWERS MAY BE MORE RELATED TO
THE TROUGH THAN TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 20N
TO 22N4W 19N16W 13N20W 10N33W 12N47W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED MORE TOWARD
CENTRAL MEXICO...AND NOW IS NEAR 22N103W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO FROM 20N TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUSIANA...IN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHERN BAHAMAS CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N72W...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO THE
EAST CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO
20N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 84W. THE MONSOON TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W BEYOND SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. A LOWER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF 16N70W 11N62W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
REMNANTS OF A WEAKENING TROUGH PASS THROUGH 31N74W TO 27N77W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N80W TO 27N83W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
JUST OFF THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N71W 27N75W. AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR
22N72W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER BEYOND JAMAICA
TO THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES 33N43W TO 28N52W AND 23N56W. THIS
TROUGH HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY MORE ENERGY FROM THE WEST DURING
THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N39W TO 28N49W TO 29N55W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM
29N55W BEYOND 32N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W 28N44W 26N50W...AND FROM 23N
TO 29N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A SURFACE SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 21N50W
17N55W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE SHEAR AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO
25N33W 22N46W...THROUGH A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 23N62W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N77W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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