[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 09N24W TO 18N22W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. SHORTWAVE INFRARED METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE
VICINITY OF 11N23W...WHICH IS PRIMARILY A MONSOON TROUGH GYRE
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC. THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP-LAYERED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES LOCATED SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...HOWEVER
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 20W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 08N50W TO 18N45W MOVING W-NW AT
10-15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
13N48W AND AN AREA OF HIGHER TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IS
FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 48W-53W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO
INDICATES THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB...OR LOW TO
MID-LEVEL...TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS IN THE
VICINITY OF 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED EAST OF
THE LOW CENTER FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 50W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 11N71W TO 19N68W MOVING W AT 15
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A 1017 MB WESTERN ATLC HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE WAVE NEAR
24N64W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W
ALONG 08N34W TO 11N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
07N-11N BETWEEN 20W-24W...AND FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 25W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SW TO OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 19N94W. AT THE SURFACE...A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC WATERS ALONG 25N. THE
RIDGE AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF N OF 22N W OF 85W. WITH SURFACE
TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE REMNANTS OF EMILY ACROSS THE W ATLC
AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE NOTED S OF 27N E OF 85W. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS
OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-89W AND OVER THE SW GULF S
OF 20N. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE GULF ALONG 25N THROUGH TUESDAY WITH S-SE WINDS
INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W AS LOWER PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS INTO WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BISECTS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N62W TO 21N73W TO 15N81W THEN OVER COSTA
RICA NEAR 10N83W. MOST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE IS IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING OFF THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
83W-87W. FARTHER SOUTH...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
ALSO OCCURRING NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM N OF
THE AXIS W OF 80W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHEAR LINE
EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS GENERATING AN AREA OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 56W-65W THAT IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG DUE TO A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG 25N IN THE W ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE REMNANT SURFACE CIRCULATION OF EMILY IS ANALYZED AS A 1010
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM
THE LOW TO 29N75W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM
FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. FARTHER EAST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
LAYERED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC CENTERED NEAR 44N43W AND
AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N40W THEN CONTINUES
ALONG 28N50W TO 29N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE
TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS SW FROM THE COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 28N49W
TO 24N57W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED
NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 44N18W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW
FROM THE HIGH TO 32N28W TO 23N43W THEN WESTWARD TO A 1017 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N64W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net