[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072329
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY IS NEAR 31.1N 74.1W AT
07/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA...OR ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM W OF BERMUDA. EMILY IS
MOVING NE 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011
MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35
KT. EMILY HAS WEAKENED AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT
AS IT INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE LAST FORECAST
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 WAS ISSUED AT
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR EAST ATLC FROM 19N19W
TO 11N22W...MOVING W 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LOW TO
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE
WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER S ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC FROM 18N45W TO
11N47W...MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF
ELEVATED VALUES OF MOISTURE ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT WITH A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE OBSERVED IN THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD FIELD AT 13N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SW OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 47W-51W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 20N62W TO 14N66W
MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. SLIGHT CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER A LARGE AREA FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 56W-70W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W
TO 10N22W TO 10N30W TO 12N41W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N41W TO
16N50W TO 16N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 22W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER S FLORIDA FROM STUART TO FORT MYERS.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FLORIDA S OF 27N.
CLUSTERS OF AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER N FLORIDA AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA N OF 28N. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 25N. WEAK 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
ARE NOTED WITH FAIR WEATHER. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 90W-92W. EXPECT
MORE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN TO
BEYOND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S
OF 10N BETWEEN 79W-84W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS S OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 75W-84W. 10-20 KT
TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS E OF
80W. EXPECT MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE N AND W
CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
T.D. EMILY IS NE OF THE N BAHAMAS. SEE ABOVE. A 1020 MN HIGH IS
ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 24N63W. FURTHER NE... A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N44W TO 30N47W TO
31N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN
44W-60W. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 33N27W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 25N40W TO THE N
BAHAMAS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PRODUCE CONVECTION N OF 23N BETWEEN
40W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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