[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 071434
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2011

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT EMILY CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED
SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS LOCATED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REMAINING DEEP
CONVECTION.  THIS STRUCTURE IS CONSISTENT WITH 20 TO 25 KT OF
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS SHOWN BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS
SATELLITE ANALYSIS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT ON THE
BASIS OF CONTINUITY AND A DVORAK CI-NUMBER OF 2.0 FROM TAFB.  THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AND THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATERS UNTIL IT IS
ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND AND IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN NEAR THE
CENTER...EMILY COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...
OR THE SYSTEM COULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH EARLIER THAN DISSIPATION
IS INDICATED HERE.

SATELLITE FIXES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS AHEAD OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES
AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...035 DEGREES...AT 15 KT.
OVERALL...THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS EMILY
WILL CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...DUE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE NEW
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 30.1N  76.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 31.6N  74.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  08/1200Z 33.4N  69.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  09/0000Z 35.2N  63.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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