[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY IS NEAR 28.5N 77.7W AT
07/0900 UTC. EMILY IS MOVING NORTHWARD 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY IS TRANSMITTED UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY IS UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25...FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
OF 27.5N78W. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS CENTERED ABOUT 60 NM
TO THE NORTH OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. T.D. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TODAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH EMILY. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE STILL
POSSIBLE IN HEAVY SQUALLS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EARLY
THIS MORNING.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
AFRICA ALONG 23N18W 19N19W 15N20W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 10N23W. WARMING
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE LINGERING CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 19W AND 21W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N43W 11N44W 10N45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 46W AND 48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N56W 15N60W 12N62W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 23N
TO 24N3W 20N12W 14N20W 13N30W 13N39W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 14N45W
15N53W 15N57W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 11N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO
NEAR 20N100W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO
23N90W AND NORTHEASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS BEEN TO THE EAST OF 90W.
PART OF THAT DRIER AIR HAS BEEN REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM T.D. EMILY. THE MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOVING FROM THE BAHAMAS...
ACROSS FLORIDA...TO 85W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH
OF 23N. THE EARLIER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS NOT
APPARENT FOR THE 07/0600 UTC MAP ANALYSIS. A 1017 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WAS FOUND IN COASTAL CUBA NEAR 23N81W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 22N60W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 17N69W AND 15N73W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO
THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 70W...AND FROM 14N TO 17N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR HAS MOVED ACROSS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
20N63W...THE MONA PASSAGE...15N74W...TO JAMAICA. THIS DRIER AIR
COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...
SPREADING INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...
BLOWING WESTWARD OFF THE WATER...INTO EASTERN HONDURAS. UPPER
LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA AND CUBA BETWEEN
70W AND 80W...WITH THE FLOW EVENTUALLY REACHING NORTHERN COASTAL
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THE WIND FLOW IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY TO THE
SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 80W REACHING CENTRAL AMERICA. BROAD
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT
COVERED THE AREAS FROM SOUTHERN BELIZE TO WESTERN HONDURAS AND
EL SALVADOR HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED WITH TIME.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 27N54W. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO
31N52W AND 32N58W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N58W
BEYOND 33N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 33N43W 29N50W
28N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 55W AND 70W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE FIRST ONE PASSES THROUGH
32N29W TO 28N29W. THE RIDGE THAT IS BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS IS
BEING SQUEEZED BY THE 32N49W 27N54W TROUGH AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD
AT A RATE THAT IS COMPARATIVELY FASTER THAN THE SPEED OF THE
32N29W 28N29W TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1022 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N31W...TO 26N37W AND 24N55W
AND 25N66W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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