[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070616 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2011

CORRECTION IN ORDER TO UPDATE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY IS NEAR 27.4N 78.2W
AT 07/0300 UTC. EMILY IS MOVING NORTHWARD 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY IS TRANSMITTED UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY IS
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25...FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
A 40 NM RADIUS OF 27N79W. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
CENTERED ABOUT 20 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND. T.D. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
THROUGH SUNDAY.  ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH EMILY. WIND GUSTS
TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY SQUALLS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
AFRICA ALONG 23N17W 18N19W 15N20W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 19W AND 23W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N40W 13N42W 9N43W.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 45W AND 46W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N55W 15N59W 11N61W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 24N
TO 24N3W 20N15W 14N20W 12N28W 14N39W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 14N43W
14N50W 15N56W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 11N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO
NEAR 20N100W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO
23N90W AND NORTHEASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS BEEN TO THE EAST OF 90W.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM T.D. EMILY HAS BEEN MOVING FROM THE
BAHAMAS...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO 85W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO
THE NORTH OF 23N. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 22N60W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 16N71W AND 15N73W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 70W...AND FROM 15N
TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR HAS MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
20N63W...PUERTO RICO...15N72W...AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. THIS DRIER AIR COVERS WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE BLOWING WESTWARD OFF THE WATER AND
REACHING THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. UPPER
LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA AND CUBA BETWEEN
70W AND 80W...WITH THE FLOW EVENTUALLY REACHING NORTHERN COASTAL
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THE WIND FLOW IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY TO THE
SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 80W REACHING CENTRAL AMERICA. BROAD
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING FROM EASTERN HONDURAS AND EASTERN
NICARAGUA TO A POSITION THAT NOW COVERS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
BELIZE TO WESTERN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 29N53W. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N50W TO
32N54W AND 32N57W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N57W
BEYOND 33N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 33N43W 31N48W
29N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE FIRST ONE PASSES THROUGH
33N31W TO 29N32W. THE RIDGE THAT IS BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS IS
BEING SQUEEZED BY THE 32N49W 29N53W TROUGH AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD
AT A RATE THAT IS COMPARATIVELY FASTER THAN THE SPEED OF THE
33N31W 29N32W TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1024 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N32W...TO 26N40W AND 25N50W
AND 27N68W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






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