[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY IS NEAR 26.9N 78.1W AT
06/2100 UTC. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WNW OF GREAT
ABACO ISLAND. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT 7 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY IS TRANSMITTED UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY IS UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25...FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS...AND DATA FROM
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE
REMNANTS OF EMILY HAVE REGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONLY
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AIR AND MODERATE
NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. PRESENTLY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 78W-83W TO
INCLUDE W CUBA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...S FLORIDA...AND THE
N BAHAMAS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA
FROM 22N16W TO 15N18W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE DIAGNOSTIC MODELS
HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
17W-24W DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND VORTICITY ALOFT.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 17N MOVING
W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN
37W-44W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER
ANTILLES ALONG 18N54W 12N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12-18N BETWEEN 58W-63W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 16N16W ON THE W COAST OF
AFRICA AND CONTINUES SW TO 13N20W TO 12N30W TO 12N34W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 12N34W TO 16N50W TO 14N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
T.D. EMILY IS PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER W CUBA...THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA ...AND S FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W PRODUCING LIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 88W-91W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 20N98W. ISOLATED
AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER INLAND MEXICO FROM 16N-28N
BETWEEN 96W-105W. EXPECT EMILY TO MOVE E OF THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
SEE ABOVE. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO THE SW
CARIBBEAN TO BEYOND COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
S OF 12N. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND E HONDURAS FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 84W-86W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH STRONGEST WINDS E OF 80W. EXPECT MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
ADVECT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
T.D. EMILY IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER E...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 74W-76W.
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N30W. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 25N50W TO 25N68W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO DIP S TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PRODUCE CONVECTION N OF 26N BETWEEN
45W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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