[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N78W...IN BETWEEN ANDROS
ISLAND...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...THE ABACOS. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER NORTHWARD TO 29N78W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST OF
CUBA NEAR 23N79W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
23N TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA
COAST. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE EAST OF
THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 75W
AND 78W. THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS EN ROUTE
IN ORDER TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD SLOWLY AND PRODUCE
SQUALLS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THEN...
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN ON SUNDAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA
ALONG 16W/17W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. THE DIAGNOSTIC MODELS HAVE
BEEN FORECASTING THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 21W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N36W 10N33W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN
38W AND 45W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N51W 11N55W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 22N
TO 23N3W 19N15W...AND FROM 16N18W TO 12N24W AND 11N32W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N36W TO 16N43W AND 15N50W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO
NEAR 18N97W JUST TO THE WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO 22N90W JUST OFF
THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO 26N82W NEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS MOVING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND TO THE
NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAK AND COMPARATIVELY FLAT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 21N57W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO ANGUILLA TO 16N70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 71W. UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR HAS MOVED ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA THAT IS FROM
16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...INCLUDING ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE EAST
OF 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM ANTIGUA TO BARBUDA.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN
57W AND 61W SINCE 08/1100 UTC. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
IN THIS AREA HAVE BEEN WARMING WITH TIME. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE
THAT SOME RAINSHOWERS REMAIN THERE. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 80W AND CENTRAL
AMERICA...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE ADJACENT TO AND TO THE NORTH OF
PANAMA...AND TO THE EAST OF COSTA RICA AND SOUTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA. RAINSHOWERS ARE BLOWING WESTWARD OFF THE WATER AND
REACHING THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. UPPER
LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA AND CUBA BETWEEN
70W AND 80W...WITH THE FLOW EVENTUALLY REACHING NORTHERN COASTAL
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THE WIND FLOW IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY TO THE
SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 80W REACHING CENTRAL AMERICA. BROAD
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 30N60W. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N58W TO
34N65W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 58W AND
70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FIRST
ONE PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 27N40W. THE RIDGE THAT IS BETWEEN
THE TWO TROUGHS IS BEING SQUEEZED BY THE 32N57W 30N60W TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES EASTWARD AT A RATE THAT IS COMPARATIVELY FASTER THAN
THE SPEED OF THE 32N40W 27N40W TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N31W...
TO 26N45W AND 27N72W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net