[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE REMNANTS OF EMILY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
CURRENTLY A 1012 MB LOW IS ANALYZED N OF CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
23N77W MOVING NW-N NEAR 10-12 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
THROUGH THE LOW CENTER FROM NEAR 27N74W TO THE LOW CENTER AND
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO 22N79W. A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS
FROM 0204 UTC INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY W OF
WHERE CURRENTLY DEPICTED AND WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED ON THE NEXT
ANALYSIS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIED DOWN A LITTLE
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION STILL REMAINS FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 74W-79W. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NW BAHAMAS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE ERN TRPCL ATLC ALONG 18N30W TO
11N32W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SLIGHT CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS ALSO INDICATED BY SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TRPCL ATLC ALONG 17N50W TO
10N52W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS AHEAD OF A BROAD SURGE OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 49W-53W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W
ALONG 10N19W TO 12N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N34W ALONG
15N46W TO 12N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF
THE W AFRICAN COAST FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 14W-17W. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 20W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FAIRLY DRY TONIGHT INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR
ALOFT BEING DRAWN FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER SRN MEXICO NEAR 18N96W WITH TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING TO S FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER ERN TEXAS IS SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
AROUND A 1013 MB HIGH S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N91W. WEAK
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE RIDGE. A FEW CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE W COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
25N-29N BETWEEN 82W-84W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG
THE N CENTRAL GULF N OF 29N BETWEEN 87W-93W. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CAUSING NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AT THIS TIME. EXPECT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM S OF CUBA NEAR
21N80W TO 17N84W. HOWEVER...NO STRONG SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT DUE TO STRONG DRY AIR ALOFT INDICATED BY
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DRY AIR IS BEING WRAPPED AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING COVERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER HONDURAS. AN AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS E OF THE TROUGH S OF CUBA FROM
19N-21N BETWEEN 77W-79W ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY
DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO E OF COAST RICA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS WITH NE-E TRADEWIND
FLOW NEAR 20 KT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS
TRADEWIND FLOW FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 61W-66W. EXPECT THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE ERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY ARE
IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FAR WRN ATLC FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 74W-79W.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A CLUSTER OF
ACTIVITY IS ALSO FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 71W-73W. A LARGE AREA OF
DUST IS TO THE E OF THIS AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER BETWEEN 55W-65W.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED TO THE N NEAR 32N76W
WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE SRN GULF EXTENDS
TO THE NW BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NE ALONG 58W
THAT EXTENDS SWD TO 30N SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE
AREA THAT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N
BETWEEN 53W-60W. A DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLC ALONG 30N44W TO 19N62W. BROAD UPPER RIDING COVERS MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR 22N38W SUPPORTING A
SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 27N42W. A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 35N14W.
ANOTHER AREA OF AFRICAN DUST EXTENDS N OF THE TROPICAL WAVES
FROM 15N-20N E OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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