[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N76W JUST OFF THE COAST
OF CUBA ON THE BAHAMAS SIDE. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS THE
REMNANT OF EMILY. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER
ACROSS CUBA TO CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN...AND THEN TO
15N81W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 24N71W...IN THE
BAHAMAS FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W...AND OFF THE COAST
OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA FROM 19N TO 20N
ALONG 76W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SYSTEM MAY REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH 15 MPH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W FROM 10N TO
17N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN
30W AND 34W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N43W 14N46W 11N49W.
THE MODEL DIAGNOSTICS FORECAST A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THIS TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 23N
TO 23N2W 19N10W 18N15W 12N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 13N29W TO
15N39W 13N45W...AND FROM 11N51W TO 9N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 26W...AND FROM
8N TO 12N BETWEEN 49W AND 60W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN GUYANA...AND JUST OFF THE WESTERN
COAST OF TRINIDAD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR TRINIDAD FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 05/1200 UTC WAS ONE INCH. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE REMNANT LOW OF
EMILY...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N74W...ABOUT 120 NM TO THE
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO A WEAK
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N87W IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN ACTIVE DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OF MEXICO...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...TO THE NORTH
OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
WARMING RECENTLY. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 70W AWAY FROM THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW CENTER OF
EMILY...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE
EAST OF 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE COAST BETWEEN 86W AND 87W...AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF LOUISIANA...IN AFTERNOON HEATING. A 1014 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N89W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE
NEAR 20N85W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS PART OF
THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH THAT
RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 26N74W TO THE CYCLONIC CENTER
THAT IS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OF EMILY EXTENDS FROM 15N81W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO
CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN...ACROSS CUBA...TO THE 1011 MB LOW
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N76W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA
FROM 19N TO 20N ALONG 76W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO
THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 75W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA
NEAR 10N74W BEYOND COSTA RICA ALONG 10N84W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM MARTINIQUE TO SAINT LUCIA AT THIS TIME IN SURFACE
TRADEWIND FLOW. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 33N44W TO 28N49W REACHES
16N59W...A LITTLE BIT TO THE EAST OF GUADELOUPE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N74W...ABOUT 120 NM TO THE
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO A WEAK
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N87W IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 70W
AWAY FROM THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT
LOW CENTER OF EMILY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N44W
TO 28N49W TO 16N59W...NEAR THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 34N33W...TO 30N51W 28N63W AND 30N77W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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