[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE REMNANTS OF EMILY IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N73W THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE N CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 16N76W. A BROAD
AREA OF SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN/SW ATLC FROM 16N-26N BETWEEN
65W-78W. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER MOST OF HISPANIOLA...
E CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS. ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT CONTINUES TO BE A
MAJOR RAIN MAKER FOR THE AREA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF A
CLOSED CIRCULATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT TODAY. HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
RE-DEVELOPMENT BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NW NEAR 13 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM
15N37W TO 11N45W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AS INDICATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS
WITH A SLIGHT CURVATURE OBSERVED IN THE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W S ALONG 8N19W TO 11N32W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N47W ALONG 9N55W TO 11N61W. CLUSTERS OF
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-13N E OF 30W TO INLAND
OVER W AFRICA AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 49N-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF AND IS ANCHORED OVER E
TEXAS EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO HEAVY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE N GULF COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/
LOUISIANA BORDER. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN JUST OFF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO FORT MYERS. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE
W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA WITH A 1015 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N91W
LEAVING THE MOST OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
TONIGHT. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD FROM THE ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF BY MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE REMNANTS OF EMILY...SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR THE S PENINSULA OF HAITI AND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
COLOMBIA S OF PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60
NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 72W TO COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA
BORDER. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND E PORTION. THE REMNANTS OF EMILY WILL MOVE NW OF THE
CARIBBEAN TOWARDS THE SE BAHAMAS TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE SE AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI AND FRI EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE REMNANTS OF EMILY...SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF
OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 70W. A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A
1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 400 NM SW OF THE AZORES N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N45W ALONG
27N67W 27N75W THEN ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
REMNANTS OF EMILY WILL MOVE NW OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND
ACROSS THE SE AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY EARLY FRI EVENING. IT WILL
THEN REACH THE NW BAHAMAS EARLY SAT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT ON SAT. THE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE LOW IS
THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NW OF THE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT BEFORE TURNING
NE AND LIFTING N OF AREA EARLY SUN NIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE W TROPICAL
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...AND CONTINUE W THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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