[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS NEAR 17.8N 72.8W AT
03/1800 UTC. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 60 NM TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE IN HAITI. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY IS
TRANSMITTED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE
FULL FORECAST ADVISORY IS UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25...FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS AND LAND AREAS THAT ARE FROM 16N
TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS FROM 12N IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 26N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 64W AND 80W.
POLO-BARAHONA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC REPORTED ABOUT 6 INCHES RAIN FOR THE 24-HOUR TIME
PERIOD THAT ENDS AT 04/1200 UTC. SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO REPORTED
ABOUT 0.80 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE SAME 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N33W 12N38W 10N41W.
THE MODEL DIAGNOSTICS FORECAST A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THIS TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND FROM 10N
TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 19N
TO 18N10W 14N22W 15N28W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 15N28W TO
14N33W...AND FROM 12N41W TO 10N51W AND 11N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 14N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 6N TO 12N
BETWEEN 46W AND 63W...INCLUDING ACROSS TRINIDAD AND IN
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
PLEASE FOLLOW THE FORECAST TRACK OF T.S. EMILY DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. ITS FORECAST TRACK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TAKE IT
FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TOWARD ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.
ANY SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST TRACK MAY MEAN
SOME AMOUNT OF WIND AND PRECIPITATION FOR AT LEAST THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND POSSIBLY OTHER AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME THROUGH
MEXICO TO 22N103W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW PRETTY MUCH COVERS ONLY
MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST AND
106W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO WATERS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 92W.
SOME OF THOSE RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING WITH TIME IN
THIS AREA. A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N88W. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY FLAT AND WEAK.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.S. EMILY IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTH CENTRAL HISPANIOLA
AT THIS MOMENT. ITS 24-HOUR FORECAST IS TO MOVE TOWARD
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A WEAK
ATLANTIC OCEAN 24N73W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N78W...ACROSS CUBA INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N84W...TOWARD THE BORDER OF
THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA ALONG 90W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 82W
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM 9.5N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO
THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON TROUGH
RUNS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W BEYOND THE PANAMA/COSTA
RICA BORDER INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FROM 24 HOURS AGO PASS
THROUGH 32N64W TO 28N69W TOWARD 24N73W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH A WEAK ATLANTIC OCEAN 24N73W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST OF CUBA NEAR
23N78W...ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
19N84W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...AWAY FROM THE
PRECIPITATION THAT T.S. EMILY IS GENERATING...TO THE NORTH OF
20N TO THE WEST OF 64W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 34N39W
28N48W 18N53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 30N
BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1030 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N32W...TO 32N40W 29N56W AND
27N72W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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