[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 032346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS NEAR 16.9N 70.6W AT
04/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 65 NM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
EMILY HAS NOW BECOME STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. FOR MORE DETAILS SEE THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY TRANSMITTED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY IS UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
HAS POPPED UP NEAR THE CENTER FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 69W-71W...AND
E OF THE CENTER FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 66W-68W. NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 65W-71W INCLUDING
PUERTO RICO AND ERN HISPANIOLA. WHILE MUCH OF THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY IS S OF THE ISLANDS...HEAVIER RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS
THE STORM TAKES A WNW OR NW TRACK ACROSS HAITI OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOME OF THESE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TRPCL ATLC IS ALONG 17N32W TO
11N34W MOVING W 10-12 KT. A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
TRAILS THE WAVE EXTENDING TO THE AFRICAN COAST. CURRENTLY NO
DEEP CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST ACROSS SENEGAL
ALONG 13N17W TO 12N28W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ON THE OTHER SIDE OF
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 8N39W 7N50W 9N61W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
16W-21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN
13W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COVER MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 28N. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN
85W-91W. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE HAS DISSIPATED AS OF 2100 UTC. THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN IS COVERED BY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1014 MB HIGH
NEAR 26N94W WITH WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND IT. ALOFT...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTS THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER SRN
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS OVER SRN
MEXICO ALONG 100W. THIS IS PLACING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE OVER
THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE SUPPORTING A SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N W OF 94W. EXPECT WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SE
FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF T.S. EMILY DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SLIGHT SHIFT WESTWARD OF THE CURRENT
TRACK FORECAST WOULD MEAN A GREATER THREAT FOR THIS AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.S. EMILY IS CENTERED S OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG WITH HEAVY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE CARIBBEAN
N OF 14N BETWEEN 63W-72W WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY S OF
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO. PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND
ERN CUBA MAY RECEIVE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. THE WRN HALF OF
THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR
ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE TO
NICARAGUA AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ANTI-CYCLONIC OUTFLOW
COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE S OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA DUE TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NRN
COLOMBIA. INTERESTS IN THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EMILY AS IT MOVES WNW OR NW OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SWATH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR
32N64W TO 25N80W ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS
FROM 32N67W TO ERN CUBA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS W OF THE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER SRN ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. T.S. EMILY...S OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...IS CAUSING AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N BETWEEN 58W-70W. INTERESTS IN THE
BAHAMAS AND SE FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
CENTERED NEAR 36N50W...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TO THE SE
NEAR 27N42W. AT THE SFC...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1027 MB HIGHS NEAR
33N34W AND 36N21W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. BROAD UPPER RIDGING
COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST AT
18N17W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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