[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS CENTERED NEAR 16.6N 69.0W AT 03/1200 UTC
OR ABOUT 145 NM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING
W AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 66W-68W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 64W-69W. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-6
INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
AND HAITI WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS
AND CAICOS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM
19N31W ALONG 16N33W TO 12N34W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS
WELL DEFINED THE UPPER LEVELS AS INDICATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL
SATELLITE WINDS. HOWEVER...IT IS ILL DEFINED CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE. THE NEAR STATIONARY 1012 MB LOW IS NOW LONGER ATTACHED
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND IS CENTERED NEAR 11N32W. NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 19N55W
14N56W 10N56W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE AS AT THE TRAILING EDGE
OF AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/
CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W W ALONG 13N25W THROUGH THE 1012 MB LOW
NEAR 11N32W TO 9N46W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N46W ALONG
11N49W TO 10N53W AND CONTINUES TO BE DISTORTED BY TROPICAL STORM
EMILY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
6N-11N E OF 19W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 125 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 11N-15N AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
20W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF N OF 24N AND IS ANCHORED OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER E GULF WATERS E OF
A LINE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR HAVANA
CUBA. AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER S/CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR PUEBLA
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NE INTO THE SW GULF TO NEAR
24N94W SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N95W
TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17N95W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N BETWEEN 88W-97W TO
INLAND OVER MEXICO AND THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS S FLORIDA WITH A 1014 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 24N87W LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS
MORNING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF AND
DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SAT. TROPICAL STORM EMILY WILL
DISRUPT THIS RIDGE AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD IN THE W ATLC THIS
WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
PRIMARY CONCERN AGAIN THIS MORNING IS TROPICAL STORM EMILY...SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM EMILY. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W
TO ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 9N83W
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N E OF 82W TO INLAND
OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERATED
BY TROPICAL STORM EMILY DOT THE E INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N
OF 13N BETWEEN 63W-73W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM
EMILY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW TODAY CROSSING HISPANIOLA
TONIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE SW ATLC ON THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS S INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N71W TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 25N76W
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH AT 03/0900 UTC ENTERS THE W ATLC
NEAR 32N69W ALONG 30N73W TO OFF FLORIDA NEAR 28N78W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM
26N73W TO 30N66W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA AND ABOUT 350 NM SW OF THE AZORES AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N37W ALONG 28N50W 26N67W THEN W ACROSS S
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST
CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES COVERING
THE AREA FROM 12N-25N E OF 50W WITH A NARROWER LESS DENSE SWATH
FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 50W-70W. TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND INTO THE SW ATLC THU THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW







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