[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS UPGRADED AT 01/2330 UTC AND IS CENTERED
NEAR 15.5N 63.5W AT 02/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 230 NM SE OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO MOVING W AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 FOR MORE
DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS OF 15N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
75 NM OF A LINE FROM 9N55W TO 11N56W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING A BROAD AREA FROM
11N-18N BETWEEN 54W-64W. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE N WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-6 INCHES EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 12N49W
9N51W 5N52W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA
OF OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
75/90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 6N-10N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST NEAR DAKAR SENEGAL ALONG 12N21W 11N28W TO 11N42W.
THE ITCZ AXIS IS BEING DISTORTED BY TROPICAL STORM EMILY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE
FROM 12N26W TO 7N24W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 37W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 13N28W TO 11N31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE N GULF N OF 24N AND IS
ANCHORED OVER W ARKANSAS/E OKLAHOMA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
THE REMAINDER OF THE SE CONUS TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SUPPORTING A LOW AND STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY IS
INLAND OVER S GEORGIA TO S MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND OVER THE N GULF WATERS
N OF 28N E OF 94W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER TROUGH
IS OVER THE S GULF EXTENDING FROM THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO OVER MEXICO NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N E OF 94W TO
INLAND OVER MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE N GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC WITH A 1015
MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 27N86W AT 02/0300 UTC LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE N GULF AND DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS TROPICAL STORM EMILY IN THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN IS ANCHORED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 82W TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A
SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM EMILY. THESE UPPER RIDGES ARE INDUCING AN
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NICARAGUA NEAR
13N84W NE TO E CUBA NEAR SANTIAGO DE CUBA. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO
OVER PANAMA AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 9N79W GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND NICARAGUA. BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM EMILY DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W LEAVING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WNW ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED THEN INTO THE SW ATLC
WED NIGHT. E TRADES WILL INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE
THU AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIPPING S OVER THE E CONUS AND INTO THE W
ATLC N OF 30N W OF 75W SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA BUT GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA N OF A LINE FROM FLORIDA NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL ALONG 29N75W TO BEYOND 32N65W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA AND ABOUT 400 NM SW OF THE AZORES AND A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N45W ALONG 28N62W THEN W INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS OBSERVED ON THE
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES FROM 11N-24N E OF 50W. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG 28N THROUGH WED. TROPICAL STORM
EMILY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WNW FROM THE NE
CARIBBEAN INTO THE BAHAMAS THU THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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