[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER HAS FINALLY FORMED NEAR THE
ISLAND OF DOMINICA...MARKING THE FORMATION OF TROPICAL STORM
EMILY LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 62.0W AT 01/2330Z. EMILY IS TRACKING
TOWARD THE WEST AT 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-18N
BETWEEN 57W-63W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE W TROPICAL ATLC ANALYZED
FROM 15N47W TO 5N48W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCT. BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE DATA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 12N
BETWEEN 48W-58W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 21N17W ALONG 16N24W 12N31W 10N39W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT TO
WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 22W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE E AND SE CONUS EXTENDING ITS AXIS INTO THE NE GULF. THIS
FEATURE SUPPORT A FRONTAL/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITTING
INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS
SYSTEM EXTENDS INTO OUR DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NORTHERN AND NE
WATERS N OF 27N E OF 94W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA...
AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...
ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE SOME MID
TO UPPER LEVEL LIFTING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS
EVENING...GENERATING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OVER
MOST OF THE AREA... ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH OVER THE NW GULF
NEAR 27N93W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THIS EVENING
...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES BETWEEN DOMINICA
AND MARTINIQUE WITH GUSTY WINDS...SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW BASIN S OF
12N W OF 73W DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW BASIN N OF 15N W OF 80W...ASSOCIATED
TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS
EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC BASIN...ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND ABOUT 330 NM SW OF THE
AZORES NEAR 34N34W. THIS FEATURE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS WSW TO THE
BAHAMAS. THE CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT AND LAST
VISIBLE METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE DAY SHOWED A LARGE
AREA OF AFRICAN DUST N 12N E OF 45W. WITHIN THIS AREA OF DRY
DUSTY AIR...AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS FOUND ON
WATER VAPOR NEAR 27N43W WITHOUT ANY DEEP CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net