[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N20W 1N30W 4S40W EQ50W
...BECOMING INDISTINCT AT EQ38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 8W-11W...FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 15W-18W...AND FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 34W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI
AT 31N88W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS WITH FAIR WEATHER
ARE OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S
FLORIDA AT 26N80W TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N85W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA S OF 27N. RESIDUAL BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SE GULF. TEMPERATURES DROPPED 10 DEGREES
TO 75 F ALONG THE FRONT OVER S FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF SUPPORTING THE SURFACE
FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE TO THE W ATLANTIC
...AND FOR HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW TO SET IN WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND
OVER VENEZUELA...AND COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER PANAMA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA E OF 93W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS
AND GUATEMALA FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 86W-92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL
FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N48W. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 30N70W. ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SE TO W AFRICA AT 21N17W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N55W WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING THE SHOWERS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT THE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N65W TO
THE N BAHAMAS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...W OF 50W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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