[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W EQ27W 4S32W 4S40W EQ50W. A BIG
CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SIERRA
LEONE AND GUINEA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 8W-14W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 11W-12W...FROM 6N-7N BETWEEN
16W-18W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 22W-24W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN
45W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S LOUISIANA AT 30N93W
TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TO TAMPICO MEXICO AT 22N98W. 15 KT NW
WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. THE GULF IS VOID OF CONVECTION HOWEVER
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER MISSISSIPPI. 15-25 KT S WINDS ARE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE FRONT
WHILE FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN SEA.
20-25 KT SE WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W
VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA
FROM 2N-11N BETWEEN 70W-81W...AND FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 83W-86W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CUBA BETWEEN
76W-80W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE PUERTO RICO...AND THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 67W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN AND S
AMERICA S OF 12N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF OF
THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR... CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 12N...AND MORE SHOWERS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N59W. A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO N FLORIDA. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N24W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N53W WITHS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N20W SUPPORTING
THE SURFACE LOW. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...SHOWERS TO
BE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 15N W OF 50W TO THE LESSER
ANTILLES. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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