[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270615 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMENDED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011

UPDATED THE CARIBBEAN SEA INFORMATION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COASTAL BORDER OF GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W
TO 3N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 22W...TO 6S29W TO 1S40W...
RETURNING TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 47W...INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 51W ALONG THE EQUATOR. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 3W AND 12W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N12W 3N21W 3N27W 2N32W.
DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 33W
AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA. THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROUGHS 18 TO 24 HOURS AGO MOVED AWAY AND DISSIPATED. CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINS OVER LAND...FROM TEXAS TO MISSISSIPPI AND
NORTHWARD. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER
EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI AND BEYOND. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS
MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 20N...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. EARLIER PRECIPITATION
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA HAS DISSIPATED.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW SPANS THE AREA. THIS SAME
CYCLONIC FLOW HAS COVERED THIS AREA FOR THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THIS
AREA FINALLY DISSIPATED. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N65W 26N71W 31N75W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 62W/64W FROM 15N TO THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. THIS TROUGH IS AT THE LEADING EDGE
OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION THAT COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN
53W AND 63W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 65W. POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...IN AN AREA OF SURFACE SPEED CONVERGENCE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 60W...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT GOES FROM
32N23W TO 20N38W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N27W...TO 27N30W
TO 27N35W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS WITHIN 90 NM TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ACTIVE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 22W AND 24W.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 26N TO 33N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 8N
BETWEEN 33W AND 80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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