[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W EQ21W 6S30W 1S40W EQ50W. A BIG
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES OVER SIERRA LEONE
AND LIBERIA...EXTENDING ABOUT 40-75 NM OFF BOTH COASTLINES.
SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 12S-5N BETWEEN 19W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
5-25 KT SE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. FAIR WEATHER IS
NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER S MEXICO AND THE SW
BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N W OF 94W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...A COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM EAST TEXAS TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT AIR MASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
FLORIDA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF SHOULD HAVE CONTINUED SE SURFACE FLOW WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 15N61W 13N62W
10N62W. THERE IS A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM BUT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW NO PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. 10-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER E
NICARAGUA NEAR PUERTO CABEZAS...S PANAMA...N OF COLOMBIA...AND
NW VENEZUELA FROM EQ-14N BETWEEN 68W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING THE NW AREA OF PUERTO RICO.
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL CUBA.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER W OF THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA.
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO AFFECT THE S CARIBBEAN...
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 15N OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS S OF 30N ALONG THE
FLORIDA EASTERN COAST FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 78W-80W. ANOTHER AREA
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...
ALSO DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER FLORIDA. A
TROUGH E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ANALYZED ALONG 13N53W 10N54W.
THERE IS UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THIS
TROUGH...HOWEVER NO CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME. A 1027
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N57W. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 30N29W TO 28N31W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS TO THE E ALONG 30N26W 26N28W. NO
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED TO THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AT THIS TIME.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 33N27W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC FRONTS. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO
MOVE EASTWARD...FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS




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