[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 6N9W 2N16W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 30N CONTINUING S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 10W ACROSS
THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-14W AND S OF
3N W OF 42W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 16W-27W AND FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 31W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS INLAND OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS DRAWING MOISTURE
ALOFT OVER THE NW GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF
ALONG THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE MOST
OF THE GULF LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF WATERS AGAIN
THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHES OF FOG/HAZE REMAIN OVER THE NW GULF N
OF 27N W OF 89W AND LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS THE SE CONUS TO W LOUISIANA GIVING THE AREA
MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S SURFACE FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED AND
EXTEND FROM FLORIDA BID BEND AREA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 14N W OF 79W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL
ATLC DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
79W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND
COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF A LINE FROM GUADELOUPE IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 12N77W. THESE SAME TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING
IN LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM
13N-20N BETWEEN 77W-86W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC FROM A 1036 MB HIGH
ABOUT 400 NM SE OF NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA THROUGH 32N76W ACROSS THE
SE CONUS COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL. A WEAKENING 1014
MB LOW IS ABOUT 250 NM N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N69W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 21N67W TO PUERTO RICO NEAR
18N67W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 28N71W
WITH A DRY STABLE AIR COVERING THE AREA W OF 58W. THIS IS
LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE
LOW/TROUGH. AN UPPER LOW IS TO THE E NEAR 24N56W SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N57W ALONG 24N56W TO 22N57W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
23N-26N BETWEEN 50W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
MOVING S INTO THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 28N BETWEEN 37W-48W
SUPPORTING A FRONT THAT IS NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N46W TO BEYOND 32N42W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
24N-29N BETWEEN 35W-45W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC
ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH JUST S OF THE AZORES AND A WEAK 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 31N40W
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER E OF 35W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
TROPICAL ATLC. THE SURFACE LOW N OF HISPANIOLA WILL DISSIPATE TO
A SURFACE TROUGH TODAY AND CONTINUE W THROUGH THE BAHAMAS
THROUGH LATE MON BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER FLORIDA ON TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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