[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 06N10W 02N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 29W THEN INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN
09W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N
BETWEEN 35W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MODERATELY DRY AIR AND OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES.
AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN
IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC REGION NEAR 30N78W ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE NW GULF NEAR 28N95W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC
NEAR 07N40W TO 10N55W THEN ALONG 10N TO EASTERN PANAMA NEAR 80W.
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE SE
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. AT THE SURFACE...MOSTLY LIGHT
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADES ARE PROVIDING RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS
OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FEW AREAS OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING DUE TO LOW-LEVEL SPEED
CONVERGENCE S OF 13N BETWEEN 62W-72W. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS LOCATED WEST OF JAMAICA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 79W-83W
AND SW OF HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 72W-75W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 65W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 74W. THIS UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPORTIVE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS IN
A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION ALONG 32N74W TO NE FLORIDA
NEAR JACKSONVILLE. MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND E-NE WINDS
DOMINATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...A 1011 MB LOW
CONTINUES TO ROTATE CENTERED NEAR 24N65W. THE LOW IS NOW
MARGINALLY SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 30N56W TO 25N64W. THIS BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION
SHOWS A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND ONLY
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. MOST OF THE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LOCATED EAST OF THE LOW BENEATH AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM 20N-31N BETWEEN 45W-58W. A
FAIRLY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH ANALYZED
FROM 32N58W TO 28N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC E
OF 45W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1030 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N29W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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