[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210606 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 21 2011

CORRECTION FOR ALL THE DATE/TIME INFORMATION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 18W...TO
4S25W AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL COAST NEAR 5S36W. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN
4W AND 20W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN 45W AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CUTS THROUGH TEXAS...FROM NORTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...CURVING TOWARD THE FAR WEST OF
TEXAS...AND THEN NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY OF
THE NEXT WEEK.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SMALL CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS...
MOSTLY FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W...AND STILL
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 75W.LIKELY

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 23N62W. ONE SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 22N67W 23N72W 27N73W.
A SECOND SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 20N54W 23N57W 23N61W. EACH SHEAR
AXIS IS A BOUNDARY THAT SEPARATES WIND SPEEDS THAT RANGE FROM
20 TO 25 KT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF IT FROM WIND SPEEDS THAT ARE
IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 57W
AND 63W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE
NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...AND FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN
60W AND 75W.  AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
36N13W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 31N12W TO JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CANARY  ISLANDS...
BEYOND 31N21W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N41W TO 20N32W AND 5N20W.
A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SAME 1031 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N41W TO A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N50W...TO 34N62W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N78W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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