[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE IVORY COAST TO 2N10W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 12W...TO 2S29W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
2N TO 3N BETWEEN 15W AND 19W...AND WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30NM RADIUS
OF 2N28W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 40W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA. A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...PASSING THROUGH 32N78W
TO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 25N77W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 25N77W TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA FROM 25N TO 26N...
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N85W.
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM 25N TO 27N. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE
THAT IS NEAR 29N86W TOWARD THE COAST OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA.

A SURFACE TROUGH STILL IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 56W/57W
FROM 14N TO 24N. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT COVER THE WATERS FROM 15N TO HISPANIOLA
BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...IN THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA...
WITHIN 90 NM TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...IN CLOUD LINES THAT
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 77W AND 84W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 80W AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE E CONUS INTO THE NW ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 17/2100 UTC
NEAR 32N73W EXTENDING TO W GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND WHERE IT BEGINS
TO DISSIPATE ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR FORT
LAUDERDALE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
30 NM OF THE FRONT MAINLY IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF S
FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 27N77W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO 24N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC TO OVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N55W ALONG 19N58W TO 16N58W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN
54W-58W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING FROM 21N46W TO BEYOND 32N50W GENERATING BROKEN/
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERING AN
AREA FROM 21N-32N BETWEEN 47W-55W. A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER
THE E ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N20W AND A 997 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR 31N21W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN MOST CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 23N22W TO
20N33W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 31N BETWEEN 13W-23W. W ATLC
COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E AND DISSIPATE BY MON
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE W AND
CENTRAL ATLC. THE SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS WILL DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH LATE WED. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT INDUCED BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE N WILL MAINTAIN FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC
THROUGH EARLY THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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