[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 2N20W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...TO 1S37W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 4S42W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 8W AND 10W...FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 16W
AND 20W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 37W AND
40W...AND FROM 1S TO 2N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W INCLUDING IN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF BRAZIL. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 65W...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER AND THE SURROUNDING FLOW SUPPORT
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH ARKANSAS TO LOUISIANA TO
TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST/COASTAL
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA...FROM THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
TO FLORIDA...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 65W. RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL ARE INLAND TO THE NORTH OF 31N IN
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS...
AND EXIT THE AREA COMPLETELY BETWEEN 48 HOURS AND 72 HOURS.
THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT REACHES 31N70W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N70W TO 27N75W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 31N TO 35N BETWEEN 62W AND 69W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 24N TO 31N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W...
AND FROM ANDROS ISLAND/NEW PROVIDENCE ISLAND/ELEUTHERA TO THE
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N.

FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 70W NORTHWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 32N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THE AREA IN QUESTION. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 61W AND 64W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N TO 18N
BETWEEN 62W AND 68W INCLUDING IN PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND NEARBY
ISLANDS THAT ARE TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING PUSHED NORTHEASTWARD IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 70W. THE WESTERLY FLOW ENDS UP BEING CAUGHT
UP IN LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT HAS COVERED THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE LAST FIVE DAYS. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM THE PANAMA COAST NEAR 9N80W TO NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR 15N83W...FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND
85W...FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N30W TO 23N29W AND 18N27W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W
TO 27N35W TO 27N44W TO 31N50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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