[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 150004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N20W 4N33W EQ40W 2S43W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7S BETWEEN 15W-35W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5S BETWEEN
35W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF OF
MEXICO AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES OFF S FLORIDA TO THE BAHAMAS.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUD IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS OVER S GULF S OF 25N.
EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO BE ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS IN 24 HOURS
WITH CONVECTION EXTENDING TO LOUISIANA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 19N63W
TO 12N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. RADAR IMAGERY FROM PUERTO
RICO CONFIRMS THE PRECIPITATION N OF 15N AND E OF 69W...
ESPECIALLY N OF THE ISLAND. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS FROM HAITI TO
E PANAMA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS W OF 70W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
DRIFT W...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES E PROVIDING UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE WAVE AXIS AND CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N70W TO THE N BAHAMAS
AT 26N77W. THE FRONT IS VOID OF ANY PRECIPITATION. A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 36N30W TO 32N40W TO 32N50W
MOVING SE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE FRONT.
FURTHER S... A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N36W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ALONG 24N34W 20N36W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES W
TO 18N50W. IN THE TROPICS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 11N-22N
BETWEEN 56W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A TROUGH IS W OF 60W
SUPPORTING THE W ATLANTIC SURFACE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 22N BETWEEN 20W-40W SUPPORTING THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N32W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW. EXPECT...THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SE WHILE A 1002 MB LOW FORMS NEAR 33N29W. EXPECT THE OLD
SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH TO DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT THE SHOWERS E
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO CONTINUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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