[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 05N04W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 16W THEN
ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 23W AND THEN TO 03S31W AND INTO NE BRAZIL
NEAR 03S42W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
05N-07N BETWEEN 09W-13W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN
17W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 16N98W. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE OVER THE SE CONUS AND MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
WELL-ESTABLISHED SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE W
ATLC NEAR 30N74W TO THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N96W. S-SE
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE GULF WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST W OF
90W THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
EASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS
GULF COAST SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME MONDAY SHIFTING WINDS N-NE
OVER THE NW GULF WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST OF THE GULF BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SE CONUS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH BROAD
TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE SE
COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W. THIS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT IS
SUPPORTIVE OF VERY CLEAR SKIES W OF 68W THIS MORNING AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY. HIGHER CONVECTIVE WEATHER
POTENTIAL TODAY REMAINS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG 70W. E OF
70W...E-NE TRADES CONTINUE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM
NE VENEZUELA NEAR 10N64W TO DOMINICA NEAR 16N62W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING S OF 18N E OF 68W AND THIS AREA IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN MIGRATING WESTWARD BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OVER THE W ATLC SHIFTS NE OF THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN HIGH OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND THIS ADDED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY E OF 70W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
WATERS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N49W THAT EXTENDS SW TO 29N57W THEN CONTINUES AS A
STATIONARY FRONT INTO A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N61W. THE
STATIONARY FRONT THEN EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG
24N68W TO 27N76W BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE W OF 70W. THE STRONGEST
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS APPEARS TO REMAIN N OF 28N WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT E OF THE LOW. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ANALYZED FROM 18N60W TO 25N58W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC E OF 45W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES NEAR 36N25W TO 20N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN






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