[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 05N09W 03N29W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 35W THEN INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 03S43W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE EQUATOR E OF 07W AND WITHIN 90
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 09W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO EASTERN TEXAS.
WHILE MOST OF THE SURFACE TROUGHING IS INLAND AND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINATE OVER
THE W ATLC WATERS EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W-SW FROM NEAR 30N70W
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W TO 23N95W. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT IS OCCURRING ON THE
WESTERN PERHIPERY OF THIS RIDGE. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO ONCE AGAIN BUILD IN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 12N72W PROVIDING
MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
E OF 72W...AND A STREAM OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HONDURAS
ACROSS JAMAICA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ALONG 21N TO 60W. AT
THE SURFACE...EASTERLY TRADES CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO A FAIRLY STATIONARY RIDGE
LOCATED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC. WITH THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING TO 23N67W...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NE CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 17N E
OF 78W. ALSO...LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N W OF 80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AN
AXIS ALONG 76W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 30N70W. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES ACCOMPANY
THE RIDGE N OF 24N W OF 60W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALONG 50W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N45W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 26N55W TO
23N67W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC E OF
THE FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N20W. THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH ALONG 32N26W TO 23N50W. A
STRONG 1002 MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER WESTERN ALGERIA NEAR
28N07W. EARLIER MORNING ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASSES DEPICTED STRONG
N-NE WINDS TO GALE FORCE FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 09W-13W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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