[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031718
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1700 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR 5N8W...CONTINUING SW ALONG 1N20W EQ30W EQ40W INTO NE BRAZIL
NEAR 2S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FOUND WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 12W...INCLUDING THE
COASTAL WATERS OF COTE D'IVOIRE. AN AREA OF SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS S OF THE AXIS FROM 1S-7S BETWEEN 20W-35W. SCATTERED WEAK TO
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 22W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF
THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. DRY STABLE AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE AREA. AT SURFACE...ESE MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS COVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN...BECOMING
SOUTHERLY W OF 90W. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING SOME LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF...BRINGING
HAZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. SURFACE RIDGING ALONG
WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACH THE AREA LATE MONDAY. SE RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN BASIN. THIS
UPPER AIRMASS IS SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. AT
SURFACE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE BASIN. THIS FLOW IS GENERATING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA W OF 80W...DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WIND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COASTLINE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD
SUPPORTING A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLC. THE FIRST COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N50W
AND CONTINUES SW ALONG 26N60W TO ABOUT 23N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT AXIS. THE SECOND RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT IS
ANALYZED ALONG 32N57W 28N64W 27N70W WITH VERY LIMITED CONVECTION
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THESE TOW FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FARTHER E...A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN
ATLC ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1027 MB HIGHS NEAR 29N34W AND 31N37W
PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA E OF 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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