[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W ALONG 3N14W
1N27W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W INTO SOUTH AMERICA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 10W-23W...FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
29W-38W...AND FROM 1N-3N W OF 48W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US CONUS TO OVER
THE FAR NW ATLC AND INTO THE GULF N OF 22N SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT AT 01/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA JUST N OF WEST PALM BEACH TO NAPLES THEN ALONG
25N83W TO 24N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 45 NM SE OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS N AND W OF THE FRONT GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SE INTO STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND BECOME DIFFUSE LATER TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FRI AND SAT. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE MON.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER E VENZUELA COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
WITH SW TO W FLOW ALOFT AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT S OF 13N AND IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ARE ONCE AGAIN
GENERATING LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 19N BETWEEN 74W-78W LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE FRESH
EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN INCREASE MON AND TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE W ATLC. FRESH SE WINDS WILL REESTABLISH
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E HALF OF THE US CONUS INTO THE
FAR NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 01/0900 UTC EXTENDS
FROM A 993 MB LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH 32N75W
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST N OF WEST PALM
BEACH. A SQUALL LINE IS E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 29N74W
OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W WITH SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR ALOFT IS W OF
THE FRONT TO THE US COAST CLEARING THE SKIES TO THE W OF THE
FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS TO OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC. THIS
UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E
ATLC NEAR 32N27W TO 29N33W THEN DISSIPATING TO 27N40W WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 65W AND IS SPLIT BY THE E
ATLC FRONT WITH A 1022 MB HIGH NW OF THE FRONT NEAR 32N39W AND A
SECOND 1022 MB HIGH SE OF THE FRONT NEAR 26N34W. DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC WATERS S OF 25N W OF 30W
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
MORNING. FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA THROUGH STRAITS OF
FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE W OF BAHAMAS WHILE E
PORTION MOVES SE LATE SAT THROUGH SUN BEFORE BECOMING ILL
DEFINED ON MON. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS
THE NW ATLC SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT THEN MOVE SE INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC ON SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD E ACROSS THE
WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS AS IT SLIDES E ALONG 30N SUN AND MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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