[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301728
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA ALONG 15W FROM SW
MAURITANIA...TO CENTRAL SENEGAL...TO WESTERN GUINEA MOVING W AT
10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 18N MOVING W
AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 41W-48W...AND FURTHER E FROM 10N-15N
BETWEEN 37W-42W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N16W 7N30W 11N45W 9N55W
11N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 19W-28W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 48W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
10-15 KT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED E OF FLORIDA
TO THE W ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER N GEORGIA NEAR 33N85W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT...CONTINUED FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT 23N78W TO THE GULF
OF HONDURAS AT 17N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 15N-21N
BETWEEN 73W-86W. IN ADDITION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FROM 11N-19N
BETWEEN 65W-73W. FURTHER E...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 53W-63W DUE TO A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 56W FROM 13N-20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA AT 18N77W.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA...EXCEPT
THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN WHERE FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 996 GALE LOW...THE REMNANTS OF NICOLE...IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 27N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO CENTRAL
CUBA NEAR 23N78W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS N FORM THE LOW TO BEYOND
32N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION AND GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE MOSTLY E OF THE SYSTEM N OF 22N BETWEEN 74W-78W TO
INCLUDE MOST OF THE BAHAMAS. A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N46W. ANOTHER 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 37N27W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AT 31N58W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 15N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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