[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE AT 29/1800 UTC IS NEAR 23.5N
80.6W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF HAVANA CUBA
...OR ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF NASSAU. THE TROPICAL STORM IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 996 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA... AND
CENTRAL CUBA FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 76W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS
ELSEWHERE FROM 14N-25N BETWEEN 74W-85W. OUTER RAINBANDS ARE OVER
S FLORIDA...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 25N-34N
BETWEEN 74W-81W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 18N MOVING W
AT 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN
33W-38W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 87N13W 8N26W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 10W-13W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 22W-28W...AND FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 28W-33W.
TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 47W AND
56W S OF 17N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 47W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 30N82W 28N85W 24N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE FRONT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NICOLE IS OVER S
FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 90W-92W. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. MOSTLY 10-15
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 88W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS W OF 84W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND CUBA. EXPECT...THE FRONT
TO MOVE E TO THE W ATLANTIC AND MERGE WITH NICOLE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO
NICOLE...THAT IS CENTERED OVER CUBA. MOST CONVECTION AND HIGHER
WINDS ARE SE OF THE CENTER. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION... WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER GUATEMALA... BELIZE...AND
THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 86W-91W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF PUERTO RICO FROM 13N-19N
BETWEEN 66W-71W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
ALSO CENTERED OVER HAITI NEAR 18N74W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR...CONVECTION DUE TO NICOLE TO MOVE N...WHILE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MOVES OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
32N79W. FURTHER S...CONVECTION DUE TO THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF
NICOLE ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A 1026 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N50W. A WEAK 1018 MB
LOW IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 30N33W. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THREE SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AT 25N60W...21N54W AND 32N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 55W-60W DUE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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