[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291153
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN AT 29/1200 UTC IS NEAR
22.6N 81.4W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF
MARATHON FLORIDA...OR ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA.
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD 12 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. NUMEROUS
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER ALL OF JAMAICA RIGHT
NOW...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF
70W...INCLUDING ON TOP OF CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...AND EVEN SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. EXPECT STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN THE
WATERS AND OVER LAND AREAS...TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF
70W...IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE BAHAMAS...AND
FLORIDA...FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS...UNTIL THE
DEPRESSION FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. OTHER THREATS ARE
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. A STATIONARY
FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N33W 14N32W
10N31W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 27W AND 34W.

...THE ITCZ...

8N13W 9N20W 11N27W...7N34W 8N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W...AND FROM
3N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 55W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
44W/45W FROM 10N TO 17N. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND REMAINING
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W.
A SECOND TROUGH IS ALONG 16N51W 9N55W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W.
OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 48W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OF THE LAST FEW DAYS
COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE COLD FRONT OF THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAS BECOME STATIONARY AND MUCH OF IT HAS DISSIPATED ALREADY.
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 30N84W
25N86W 21N94W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS RELATED TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVES FROM
EASTERN CUBA...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...ALONG THE COASTS OF FLORIDA
AND BEYOND GEORGIA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM
CUBA TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE WEST OF 75W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS BEING AFFECTED BY CLOUDS...
LOW PRESSURE...AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST
OF 70W...THE AREA OF INTEREST OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN.
RAINSHOWERS WERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 70W...
IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 26N47W...TO A 22N54W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
18N62W. ANOTHER TROUGH GOES FROM 33N49W TO 28N56W. RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 55W AND
60W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE OCCURRING FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN
63W AND 70W...IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N25W TO 19N33W. THE 1018 MB REMNANT
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF LISA THAT IS NEAR 30N33W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 26W AND 30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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