[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN AT 29/0600 UTC IS
NEAR 22.7N 81.6W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 48 NM TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA...AND ABOUT 200 NM TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER
ALL OF JAMAICA RIGHT NOW. OTHER STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO
THE WEST OF 80W...TO THE NORTH OF 20N MOVING ACROSS THAT PART
OF CUBA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 80W...AND FROM 17N TO HAITI.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE APPROACHING
SOUTH FLORIDA. EXPECT STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN THE WATERS AND OVER LAND AREAS...
TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 72W...IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...THE BAHAMAS...AND FLORIDA...FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS...UNTIL THE DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM
FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. OTHER THREATS ARE FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 31N80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N33W 13N31W
8N30W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 29W AND 35W.

...THE ITCZ...

10N14W 9N20W 11N28W...9N32W 8N42W 10N52W...10N57W BEYOND 8N61W
INTO VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
3N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W...AND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN
40W AND 55W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM
10N TO 17N. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND REMAINING RAINSHOWERS
ARE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W. A SECOND TROUGH IS
ALONG 16N50W 13N53W 9N55W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 48W AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OF THE LAST FEW DAYS
COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE COLD FRONT OF THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAS BECOME STATIONARY AND MUCH OF IT HAS DISSIPATED ALREADY.
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N80W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 24N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 22N92W 24N86W 29N83W. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THAT IS RELATED TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVES FROM EASTERN CUBA...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...ALONG THE COASTS OF FLORIDA AND BEYOND GEORGIA.
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM CUBA TO SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS BEING AFFECTED BY CLOUDS...
LOW PRESSURE...AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST
OF 72W...THE AREA OF INTEREST OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN.
RAINSHOWERS WERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 70W...
IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS OCCURRING THERE SIX HOURS AGO HAS BEEN DISSIPATING
WITH TIME.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 26N47W...TO A 22N55W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
18N62W. ANOTHER TROUGH GOES FROM 33N49W TO 29N57W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 58W AND 59W. RAINSHOWERS
ALSO ARE OCCURRING FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W...IN
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N26W TO 23N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE 1018 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF LISA THAT IS NEAR
30N31W...TO 28N31W AND 26N33W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE FROM 29N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 25W AND 31W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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