[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS CENTERED NEAR 20.9N 82.5W AT
28/1800 UTC OR ABOUT 140 NM S OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 320 NM
SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA MOVING NNE AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LARGE
AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...CUBA...JAMAICA...AND SE
FLORIDA. THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE SYSTEM FOR THREAT OF
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. CURRENTLY MOST OF
THE CONVECTION IS E AND SE OF THE CENTER. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 76W-84W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N-22N BETWEEN
75W-88W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG
16N24W TO 4N25W MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WAVE AXIS.
THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 23W-30W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 8N24W 4N36W 8N47W 10N52W
6N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-10N BETWEEN 30W-42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 38W-45W NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 41W
FROM 10N-15N. A SECOND EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
17N47W 8N48W ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 47W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NRN
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N81W ALONG 24N88W TO 18N94W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...SOME HEAVY...ARE WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF
THE FRONT E OF 88W...AND FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 93W-96W. STRONG
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARE BEHIND THE FRONT MAINTAINING FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW GULF. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SE
GULF ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS T.D.
SIXTEEN MOVES NWD ACROSS CUBA BRINGING RAIN AND WIND TO MUCH OF
S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.D. SIXTEEN IS THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN
BRINGING STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF OF THE AREA.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. SIXTEEN...SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN
CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 63W-73W. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOST
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA...AND AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH E OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES
LARGE AMOUNTS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN.
EXPECT CONTINUED STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. WITH THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN
FALLING...FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGH
TERRAIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N78W TO THE
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N81W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WEAK CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT IS E OF THE FRONT N OF HISPANIOLA. SEVERAL SMALL
SURFACE LOW CIRCULATIONS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. A 1015 MB
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N64W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 61W-64W. A SECOND 1017 MB LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 28N54W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 51W-55W. A PAIR OF SURFACE
TROUGHS ARE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ
SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SEE ITCZ
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TO THE N...ANOTHER 1017 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 30N32W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTER ALONG 27N33W TO 25N36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 29N
BETWEEN 28W-34W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS NE OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
CENTERED NEAR 15N39W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH S OF THE AZORES
ISLANDS EXTENDING TO NEAR 23N32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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