[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING AND SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE. STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE COASTAL
WATERS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 78W AND
82W...FROM GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS TO THE COASTAL YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W...AND FROM 18N
TO 19N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W IN THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF
THE ISTHMUS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SURFACE-TO-MIDDLE
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
19N85W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY DEVELOP
LATER TODAY. RESIDENTS IN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE
FLORIDA KEYS...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE CONSULT
STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. A WIND SURGE IS TO THE WEST OF THE
WAVE BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 30W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

12N17W 8N30W 7N40W 7N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 10W
AND 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N37W 9N38W. SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...
TO THAT PART OF THE MEXICO COAST THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AND THE AREAS THAT ALREADY
ARE AFFECTED BY THE PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA OF INTEREST OF
THE SPECIAL FEATURE. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA TO THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS BEING AFFECTED BY CLOUDS...
LOW PRESSURE...AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE
WEST OF 77W...THE AREA OF INTEREST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 64W AND FLORIDA. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW REACHES THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT
IS TO THE EAST OF 70W...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
REMAINING WATERS BETWEEN 70W AND 76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 64W AND
FLORIDA. CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 62W
AND 72W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA...TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY
IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REMNANT OF JULIA IS
A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N63W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N33W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 26N38W 26N47W 27N52W TO 14N61W NEAR SAINT LUCIA. THE
REMNANT OF LISA IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 31W/32W...WITH
A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 29N.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 29N TO 33N BETWEEN
29W AND 33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






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