[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 280538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W...
FROM CENTRAL GUATEMALA TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND FROM THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
MEXICO TO THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF THE ISTHMUS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SURFACE-TO-MIDDLE LEVEL LOW PRESSURE.
A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 19N87W. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD. RESIDENTS IN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

...THE ITCZ...

13N17W 7N30W 7N36W 10N44W 11N50W 9N58W 10N63W. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 10N WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 33W AND 38W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN
36W AND 39W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 3N TO 12N
BETWEEN 17W AND 30W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N37W 9N38W.
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
10N TO 15N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
13N42W 11N47W 8N50W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 46W
AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM NORTH
FLORIDA...TO THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS ABOUT 90 NM TO THE NORTH
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THAT PART OF THE MEXICO COAST THAT
IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS
THAT ARE BETWEEN THE COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AND
THE AREAS THAT ALREADY ARE AFFECTED BY THE PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA OF INTEREST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS BEING AFFECTED BY CLOUDS...
LOW PRESSURE...AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE
WEST OF 77W...THE AREA OF INTEREST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 65W AND FLORIDA. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW REACHES THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT
IS TO THE EAST OF 70W...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
REMAINING WATERS BETWEEN 70W AND 76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 65W
AND FLORIDA. CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE BETWEEN 65W AND 75W.
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS AND
THE COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...TO THE EAST OF THE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE REMNANT OF JULIA IS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N60W
TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N61W TO 28N61W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 59W
AND 63W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N33W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N38W 26N47W 27N52W TO 14N61W NEAR SAINT
LUCIA. THE REMNANT OF LISA IS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 32N30W
TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N32W...
TO 23N33W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM
30N TO 32N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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