[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA IS CENTERED NEAR 26.1N 29.4W AT 26/2100
UTC MOVING NNW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35
KT. LISA IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND COMPLETELY DEVOID ANY
DEEP CONVECTION. LISA IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN TO A REMNANT
LOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 8N22W 9N30W...RESUMING NEAR
9N38W 8N44W 7N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 32W AND 45W...AND ALSO FROM 3N TO 10N
BETWEEN 23W AND 30W. A MESOSCALE COMPLEX IS ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF AFRICA FROM NORTHERN LIBERIA TO GUINEA-BISSAU...BRINGING
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OFFSHORE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANT LOW CENTER OF MATHEW CONTINUES TO BRING DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE GULF MEXICO...ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION S OF 23N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH AXIS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA HEADING SE RATHER QUICKLY...AND WILL BE ENTERING THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS INLAND OVER THE SSE CONUS...A PRE
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE NE GULF THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 29N85W AND CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 27N87W...
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE FAR NE BASIN N
OF 27N E OF 86W. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
WILL MOVE INLAND OVER FLORIDA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 67W...ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC SFC WIND
FIELD FROM THE REMNANT LOW CENTER OF MATHEW. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS THIS REGION. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
EASTERN BASIN E OF 67W...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED
WITH AREAS OS SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FURTHERMORE...COMPUTER MODELS
ARE IN SOMEWHAT AGREEMENT SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THE ENERGY AND
INSTABILITY LEFT FROM MATHEW IN THIS REGION COULD DEVELOP INTO A
RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOST OF THE WESTERN ATLC IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THIS REGION FROM A
1021 MB HIGH ENE OF BERMUDA NEAR 35N60W. NEVERTHELESS...A NEARLY
STATIONARY WEAK ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 23N70W...
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. A DISSIPATING 1014 MB LOW
REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N54W AND CONTINUES TO
GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 28N-30N
BETWEEN 54W-56W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY
BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WITH DRY STABLE AIR FROM 17N-24N
BETWEEN 30W-65W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC
MOSTLY N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THERE IS A 1011 MB LOW IN THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED N OF THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR 12N34W
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 14N
BETWEEN 31W AND 35W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE WEAK DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE EAST ATLC. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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