[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA IS CENTERED NEAR 25.6N 29.1W AT 26/1500
UTC OR ABOUT 645 NM NNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND ABOUT 750
NM S OF THE AZORES MOVING NNW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LISA IS NOW A
SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND COMPLETELY DEVOID ANY DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER S MEXICO
NEAR 17.4N 92.9W AT 26/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 35 NM S OF VILLAHERMOSA
MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30
KT. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY WRITTEN BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. ANY ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL REMOVED FROM THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS
THE SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH
MATTHEW IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL SYSTEM IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF S MEXICO AND CENTRAL
AMERICA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N14W 9N28W 8N43W 7N60W. A 1012 MB
SURFACE LOW IS JUST N OF THE ITCZ NEAR 12N34W GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 33W-34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 18W-30W...FROM 2N-7N
BETWEEN 32W-43W...AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 43W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM MATTHEW REMAINS OVER S MEXICO AND THE W
BAY OF CAMPECHE...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED JUST W OF MATTHEW NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS ENE TO 22N93W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE E GULF SE OF A LINE FROM CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
TO NEAR MERIDA ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
COVERS THE E U.S. AND EXTENDS S TO OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N W OF
PANAMA CITY FLORIDA WHILE THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 28N89W TO OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR APALACHICOLA BAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY
OVER THE NW GULF AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED AT 1500 UTC ALONG 28N88W TO 24N96W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF
THIS AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
NEAR CHETUMAL MEXICO EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS E TO 16N73W AND N
OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SW OF
A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 23N83W TO THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
18N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOSTLY E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING TOWARD THE ISLANDS
BETWEEN SAINT LUCIA TO BARBUDA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE E
CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH 300 NM ENE OF
BERMUDA SW TO 27N72W. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
TURKS AND CAICOS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING N TO 27N71W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. A 1014 MB LOW REMAINS
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N53W AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
27N-29N BETWEEN 52W-55W. OTHERWISE THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY
BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WITH DRY STABLE AIR FROM 17N-24N
BETWEEN 30W-65W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC
MOSTLY N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THERE IS A 1012 MB LOW IN THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC...SEE ITCZ ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
FROM 13N-18N W OF 57W TO THE ISLANDS BETWEEN SAINT LUCIA TO
BARBUDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE



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