[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 261435
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152010
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010

VISIBLE/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
DISORGANIZED AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NO MORE THAN 20
KT.  MATTHEW HAS WEAKENED TO A REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY.  THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD WITH A GRADUALLY
DECREASING FORWARD SPEED.  OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE REMNANT
OF MATTHEW WILL LIKELY BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA.  THE REMNANT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLOWLY CLOCKWISE
WITHIN THE LARGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION UNTIL DISSIPATION BY 36 TO
48 HOURS OR SOONER.

EVEN THOUGH THE LOW IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE THE SYSTEM...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL
AMERICA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      26/1500Z 17.4N  92.9W    20 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 17.4N  93.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 17.2N  93.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 17.1N  93.3W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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