[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 260841
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152010
400 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF MATTHEW HAS MOVED INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND DEEP
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
NO WINDS HIGHER THAN ABOUT 15 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER LAND
RECENTLY...AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0340 UTC INDICATED WINDS
OF 20-25 KT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.  THE INTENSITY
IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 25 KT.  VERY FEW OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
KEEP MATTHEW AS A DISTINCT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR MUCH
LONGER...AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.

THE DEPRESSION IS SLOWING DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING 285 DEGREES AT 9
KT.  MATTHEW...OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS AS
IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDDLE OF A MUCH LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE
THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...GFDL...HWRF...AND NOGAPS.

EVEN THOUGH MATTHEW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE DEPRESSION AND ITS REMNANTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      26/0900Z 17.3N  91.8W    25 KT
 12HR VT     26/1800Z 17.5N  92.7W    25 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     27/0600Z 17.5N  93.1W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     27/1800Z 17.4N  93.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG


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