[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN
MEXICO NEAR 17.0N 91.0W AT 26/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM W
OF TIKAL GUATEMALA MOVING WNW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH MATTHEW
CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT TO CENTRAL AMERICA. TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...
GUATEMALA...BELIZE AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER GUATEMALA AND S
MEXICO FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 90W-95W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 90W-96W.

TROPICAL STORM LISA IS CENTERED NEAR 24.3N 29.0W AT 26/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 574 NM NNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NNW AT 8
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LISA REMAINS SMALL WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN
26W-29W. LISA IS EXPERIENCING UPPER LEVEL WLY SHEAR THAT WILL
WEAKEN THE STORM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 5N25W 7N35W 5N40W 11N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 13W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 20W-25W...FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN 31W-35W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 40W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM MATTHEW IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...S MEXICO...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVING W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 84W-88W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW
LINGERS OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 10-15 KT E
FLOW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF
FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 83W-88W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S
TEXAS AND THE W GULF W OF 95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N99W PRODUCING
NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. EXPECT...MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION TO
ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF DUE TO MATTHEW OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.D. MATTHEW IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO PRODUCING ABUNDANT
CONVECTION...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A WIDE BAND OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN...HONDURAS ...AND NICARAGUA FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN
77W-88W. ELSEWHERE...A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
69W-73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N
OF HAITI NEAR 21N74W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS LOW IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION S OF HISPANIOLA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W.
EXPECT...CONTINUE CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N58W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS
OF THE LOW. HURRICANE LISA IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A
1011 MB LOW IS ALSO OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N34W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. OF
NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
32N51W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N35W PRODUCING
SHEAR OVER LISA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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