[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW IS CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 87.3W AT 25/1200
UTC OR ABOUT 22 NM W OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS...74 NM ESE OF MONKEY
RIVER TOWN BELIZE MOVING WNW AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. MATTHEW IS INLAND OVER W HONDURAS. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W HONDURAS...THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...AND BELIZE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 87W-90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N-18N
BETWEEN 86W-92W. MATTHEW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS WITH
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

HURRICANE LISA IS CENTERED NEAR 21.6N 28.1W AT 25/0900 UTC OR
ABOUT 408 NM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING N AT 8 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LISA IS A SMALL
STORM IN RELATION TO THE CONVECTION...HOWEVER IT MANAGED TO HAVE
A SMALL EYE FEATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 27W-29W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED SW OF HURRICANE LISA ALONG 11N30W 10N40W
13N50W 14N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 18W-23W... AND FROM 2N-5N
BETWEEN 23W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 38W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
10-15 KT E FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER FLORIDA AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO N OF 24N EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 22N95W 16N92W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 95W-97W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S
LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF. EXPECT...MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION TO ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF DUE TO MATTHEW OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW IS THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE
CARIBBEAN...SEE SURFACE FEATURES ABOVE. A BAND OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N AND E OF MATTHEW
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BAND 16N94W 20N87W 9N77W.
ELSEWHERE...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 12N-14N
BETWEEN 70W-74W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 63W-66W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N87W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N71W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W
OF 65W. EXPECT...MATTHEW TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W WITH SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N67W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS
OF THE LOW. HURRICANE LISA IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. OF
NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ARE A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS AT
32N72W AND 30N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







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